Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.124947 1.185935 1.249089 1.319503 1.395977 1.476697 1.568572
2026-01-04 1.023696 1.109173 1.201403 1.308826 1.431160 1.566917 1.730059
2026-01-11 0.971583 1.073157 1.186005 1.321689 1.481776 1.666396 1.898016
2026-01-18 0.926280 1.038519 1.166104 1.323452 1.514528 1.742054 2.038184
2026-01-25 0.901822 1.024767 1.167451 1.347576 1.572293 1.848170 2.220337
2026-02-01 0.855635 0.981881 1.130650 1.321755 1.565085 1.870910 2.295246
2026-02-08 0.809666 0.936589 1.088033 1.285394 1.541010 1.868727 2.334581
2026-02-15 0.780126 0.909716 1.066311 1.273402 1.546382 1.903708 2.424868
2026-02-22 0.759139 0.892247 1.055101 1.273631 1.566814 1.958762 2.545769
2026-03-01 0.731374 0.865018 1.030158 1.254367 1.559515 1.974591 2.610140
2026-03-08 0.699314 0.831146 0.995313 1.220269 1.529929 1.957027 2.622800
2026-03-15 0.681627 0.814953 0.982557 1.214840 1.539117 1.994196 2.719850
2026-03-22 0.670506 0.807483 0.981682 1.226502 1.574319 2.073209 2.892130
2026-03-29 0.651466 0.789087 0.965729 1.216791 1.578587 2.106928 2.995466
2026-04-05 0.641879 0.782661 0.965305 1.228328 1.613767 2.188807 3.184686
2026-04-12 0.629276 0.771712 0.958222 1.229909 1.633969 2.248404 3.341222
2026-04-19 0.624642 0.771173 0.965140 1.251535 1.685025 2.359556 3.599110
2026-04-26 0.604757 0.749364 0.941930 1.228388 1.666246 2.356460 3.648769
2026-05-03 0.582659 0.723967 0.912985 1.195751 1.631190 2.324407 3.641164
2026-05-10 0.568979 0.709736 0.899219 1.184978 1.629749 2.348039 3.741492
2026-05-17 0.559592 0.701131 0.893057 1.185184 1.645503 2.401394 3.904731
2026-05-24 0.545038 0.684986 0.875708 1.167866 1.632210 2.403702 3.965510
2026-05-31 0.526875 0.663420 0.850087 1.137180 1.595942 2.363826 3.935979